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 calibrated bayesian inference


Inflationary Flows: Calibrated Bayesian Inference with Diffusion-Based Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Beyond estimating parameters of interest from data, one of the key goals of statistical inference is to properly quantify uncertainty in these estimates. In Bayesian inference, this uncertainty is provided by the posterior distribution, the computation of which typically involves an intractable high-dimensional integral. Among available approximation methods, sampling-based approaches come with strong theoretical guarantees but scale poorly to large problems, while variational approaches scale well but offer few theoretical guarantees. In particular, variational methods are known to produce overconfident estimates of posterior uncertainty and are typically non-identifiable, with many latent variable configurations generating equivalent predictions. Here, we address these challenges by showing how diffusion-based models (DBMs), which have recently produced state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks, can be repurposed for performing calibrated, identifiable Bayesian inference.